Armenia and Russia: A Relationship Unravelling Ahead of 2026 Elections

For decades Armenia was Moscow's most reliable partner in the South Caucasus, but that relationship has fundamentally changed. Carnegie Endowment analysts note that the Kremlin now perceives Armenia not as a guaranteed ally but as yet another hybrid battlefield where it is fighting the West. The shift accelerated after Russia failed to intervene when Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, a moment that OSW described as a serious and demonstrative crisis in Armenian-Russian relations.

The Atlantic Council documents how Russia's imperial approach backfired concretely: Moscow withheld millions in prepaid weapons and broke security promises, daring Yerevan to complain. That pattern of coercion, rather than partnership, pushed Armenian leadership to seek alternatives.

Clingendael traces the deterioration across diplomacy, economics, defence, and security, concluding that the relationship is being redefined rather than simply cooling. Caucasus Watch adds nuance, noting that Armenia's ties with Russia remain largely situational - the government eases tensions when Moscow reacts abruptly, but the overall trajectory is westward.

Armenia suspended active CSTO participation in 2024 and stopped paying dues to the organisation. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly declared the break "irrevocable," according to Eurasianet. DW reported Pashinyan's formal announcement of intent to withdraw, citing CSTO members' failure to protect Armenia during the Karabakh crisis.

A symbolic milestone came when Russian border guards completed their withdrawal from Yerevan's Zvartnots International Airport, a posting that dated back decades, as documented by the Jamestown Foundation. Meduza reports that Armenia's parliamentary speaker has warned the country could also leave the Eurasian Economic Union if Russia raises gas prices, signalling that economic ties are now also on the table.

Formal withdrawal has not yet been completed, and Meduza notes that Armenia's legal status within the CSTO remains ambiguous - suspended but not formally exited. This ambiguity gives both sides limited room to manage the transition without a complete rupture.

In May 2026, Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement with the United States, a move Al Jazeera described as bolstering ties with Washington as parliamentary elections approach. The timing underscores how foreign policy orientation has become a central electoral issue.

ZOIS Berlin observes that under Pashinyan, Armenia has continued to cooperate with Russia on some levels while edging closer to Europe and the West politically. The dual-track approach reflects both genuine strategic recalculation and the practical constraints of geography and energy dependence.

Public opinion appears to support the western direction. A survey cited on Reddit's Armenia community from the International Republican Institute found that 38% of Armenians strongly support and 37% somewhat support closer ties with the West, suggesting a broad societal consensus behind Pashinyan's pivot.

Despite the drift, Russia retains significant structural leverage. The Foreign Policy Centre notes that Russia remains Armenia's most important trade partner and energy supplier, and that many opposition forces remain closely aligned with Moscow. This creates a domestic political fault line that Russia can exploit.

Carnegie Endowment warns that the Kremlin will not relinquish influence without a fight, using economic pressure, information operations, and support for pro-Russian political actors ahead of the June 7, 2026 parliamentary elections. ZOIS Berlin specifically analyses how Russia is likely to use the election cycle as a pressure point to slow or reverse Armenia's western integration.

Caucasus Watch cautions against reading the situation as a clean break: Armenia's government continues to manage relations pragmatically, avoiding unnecessary provocations while pursuing structural realignment. The outcome of the June elections will be a key indicator of whether the westward trajectory has genuine popular and institutional backing.