CSIN
Project · Active · 22/RITA1/2026

AI SHIELD
ARMENIA

Timeline
1 June 2026 → 31 May 2027
Partner
AIISA · Yerevan
Funder
RITA · PAFW · FED
Budget
PLN 81,260

AI Shield trains 60+ Armenian analysts, journalists and civic watchdogs to detect, dissect and answer the AI-powered disinformation operations targeting Armenia's first European parliament. Built by Polish counter-disinfo practitioners. Run by AIISA in Yerevan. Delivered in Armenian.

01The threat picture · March 2026

THREE ACTORS. ONE WINDOW.

Armenia stands where Poland stood twenty years ago -with one difference: she has eight months to do it. The Kremlin treats Armenia as 'the next Moldova' and has launched information operations with an unprecedented eight-month lead time. Only 18% of Armenians can identify a fabricated story.

Russia · Pre-election

Matryoshka & Storm-1516

The Matryoshka network kicked off eight months out -a record lead time for Russian influence operations. Over 60 AI-fabricated videos targeting Prime Minister Pashinyan, forged documents, the first-ever audio deepfake of an Armenian PM (June 2025). Storm-1516 -previously deployed against Poland, Germany and France -has expanded its reach into Armenia for the first time.

Source · CSIN monitoring, AIISA report 2026

Iran · IRGC · Spillover

Forged CNN, Reuters and Bloomberg branding

Since February 2026, the Iran conflict has driven 21.9 million views of forged stories on X, with at least 10 manipulated videos using fake CNN, Reuters and Bloomberg branding targeted at Armenian audiences. 100,000 ethnic Armenians in Iran sit at the immediate edge of this information shock.

Source · Open-source monitoring, March 2026

Azerbaijan · Constitutional debate

Permanent operations around the peace treaty

Azerbaijan demands amendments to Armenia's constitution before signing the peace treaty. It is the perfect manipulable subject: information operations run on a permanent cycle, with narratives that target the government, the opposition and the European turn simultaneously.

Source · CSIN/AIISA analysis

Fact-checking verifies single claims. Operations analysis identifies coordinated campaigns. Without that capacity, Armenian CSOs see the trees but not the forest.

02Method · Two tracks, one cascade

TWO TRACKS. ONE CASCADE.

AI Shield builds capacity on two levels at once. The decisive innovation: Track A graduates become Track B trainers. If AIISA's trainers can train the next cohort, the transfer worked.

Track A · Expert

Build the analytical core

  • 12–15 analysts from AIISA + APRI Armenia, Regional Studies Center, Regional Center for Democracy and Security
  • 54 hours of training (30 in-person in Yerevan + 24 online)
  • Every participant analyses a real disinformation campaign and writes a report
  • Pre/post test: ≥ 30% competency gain
  • Certification by 31 March 2027
Track B · Multiplier

Cascade through media and CSOs

  • 30–36 media and CSO staff: CivilNet, EVN Report, Hetq, Media Initiatives Center, Union of Informed Citizens / FIP.am, Public Journalism Club, Transparency International Armenia, FOICA, Helsinki Committee
  • 3 workshop cycles × 10–12 participants
  • Delivered by AIISA trainers (Track A alumni) -CSIN provides online mentoring only
  • Measurement: ≥ 25% competency gain, workshop rating ≥ 4/5
03Timeline · June 2026 -May 2027

TWELVE MONTHS. FOUR ACTIVITIES.

One trajectory: diagnose, train trainers, cascade, document. Every step is measurable and dated.

  1. Activity 01

    Mapping the Armenian disinformation landscape

    10-12 August 2026 · 3 days · Yerevan · PLN 13,960

    Three days of high-intensity diagnostics with 15 analysts from AIISA and invited think tanks. Poland's road from target to exporter of resilience (2014–2026). Narrative parallels between the Armenian 'Ukrainisation' frame and the 'NATO means war' frame deployed against Poland. Mapping the actors: Russia (Matryoshka, Storm-1516), Azerbaijan, Iran (IRGC). Survey of AI tools and curriculum design for Activity 2.

    Outputs · Threat-landscape map · Curriculum · Tool inventory

  2. Activity 02

    Training 12–15 analysts as trainers

    October–December 2026 · 54 hours · Yerevan + online · PLN 22,140

    In-person block in Yerevan, 5 days × 6 hours: AI-powered OSINT (Junkipedia, Media Cloud); narrative analysis and coordination detection on Storm-1516 (Botometer, Bot Sentinel); deepfake detection (InVID WeVerify, FotoForensics, Hive, TrueMedia.org); social network analysis (Gephi, NodeXL); practical integration and trainer preparation. Online block, 6 weeks × 4 hours: each participant picks a real campaign targeting Armenia, analyses it and writes a report, mentored by CSIN experts.

    Outputs · 12–15 reports · Certified analysts · Trainers ready

  3. Activity 03

    3 workshop cycles run autonomously by AIISA

    January–March 2027 · Yerevan · PLN 14,920

    Three 16-hour cycles (10–12 participants each) for staff from CSOs and independent media. AIISA trainers, certified in Activity 2, lead the workshops; CSIN only provides online mentoring. This is the empirical evidence of transfer -not a declaration, but a measurable demonstration that the partner can train the next cohort on its own.

    Outputs · 30–36 trained · Implementation plans · +25% measured

  4. Activity 04

    Open products: Toolkit, Report, Panel

    April–May 2027 · Online + Yerevan (hybrid) · PLN 15,960

    Open-source 'AI Shield' Toolkit -~60 pages, three languages (PL/EN/AM), CC BY-NC 4.0. Five chapters: typologies of coordinated information operations, Poland's road from target to exporter, step-by-step tooling, Armenian case studies, action plan for newsrooms and CSOs. Analytical report distributed to Armenia's MFA, parliamentary committees, the EU Delegation. Expert panel in mid-May 2027 -hybrid format, minimum 50 attendees.

    Outputs · Toolkit PL/EN/AM · Analytical report · Launch panel

04Toolkit · Four families, all free or freemium

FOUR TOOL FAMILIES.

No cost barrier to continued use after the project closes. Each tool documented in the open-source Toolkit, in three languages.

012 tools

Open-source intelligence

JunkipediaMedia Cloud

Case study

Mapping the Matryoshka network -from a single AI-generated video to the full campaign infrastructure.

022 tools

NLP & coordination detection

BotometerBot Sentinel

Case study

Analysing Storm-1516: account-synchronisation patterns, narratives, channels.

034 tools

Deepfake detection

InVID WeVerifyFotoForensicsHive ModerationTrueMedia.org

Case study

The first audio deepfake of PM Pashinyan -the full verification trail.

042 tools

Social network analysis

GephiNodeXL

Case study

Visualising the coordinated-account network in the 'Ukrainisation' campaign against Armenia.

05Team · Practitioners, not consultants

PRACTITIONERS, NOT CONSULTANTS.

The AI Shield team brings together Polish practitioners of information-trust reconstruction and Armenia's security research community. We don't write about disinformation -we analyse it, and train the people who answer it on the ground.

CSIN · Caucasian Social Innovation Network · Gliwice

Jędrzej Błaszczak

President, project coordinator

Analyst at INE PAN and ISP PAN (Three Seas Initiative Research Centre). Polish MFA diplomatic posting in Tbilisi. Former Frontex. Blavatnik School of Government (Oxford), PISM and European Academy of Diplomacy fellow. Law graduate, University of Silesia.

Project roleCoordination, leading Activities 1–2, co-author of the Toolkit.

Karolina Grigoryan

AI expert

Data analysis and applied-AI specialist for civic organisations. Of Armenian heritage -full command of Armenian cultural, political and linguistic context.

Project roleCo-delivery of AI modules in Activities 1–2, lead author of the Toolkit's tools chapter, Armenian-language mentoring for AIISA trainers in Activity 3.

Adrian Misiak

Training coordinator, President of PolandAI

Digital-competence trainer with nearly 1,000 instructional hours and 1,500+ people trained. KPO programme lead (6,386 local-government officials), trainer for Obywatel.IT (Polish PM's Office and Ministry of Digital Affairs), facilitator on dozens of Erasmus+ projects.

Project roleInitiated contact with AIISA in autumn 2025. Co-delivery of Activities 1–2, logistics coordination, mentoring support for AIISA trainers in Activity 3.

AIISA · Yerevan

Styopa Safaryan

Director, partner coordinator

Former Member of Armenia's National Assembly (2007–2012), delegate to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Former chair of Armenia's Public Council (2019–2021). Senior expert at Agora Strategy Group (Berlin). Munich Security Conference, Chatham House and Wilton Park participant. Co-lead of the ongoing NATO SPS project 'Guardian AI' (EUR 80,000).

Project rolePartner coordination, security expertise, recruitment, organisation of Activity 3 and the expert panel.

AIISA Analytical Team

Permanent research team · Track A core

Track record: Visegrad Fund 2023, NATO SPS 'Guardian AI' (ongoing), a decade of NED partnership.

Project roleBackbone of Track A. Peer review of participant reports. Local recruitment and logistics.

How AI Shield came to be

In autumn 2025, Adrian Misiak -while researching the NATO Science for Peace and Security programme -identified AIISA as the leading Armenian analytical centre combining security expertise with hybrid-threats experience. A series of working meetings with Director Safaryan from October to December 2025 confirmed the complementarity: CSIN brings AI methodology and training, AIISA brings security expertise and the Armenian network. AI Shield is the first joint project. CSIN and AIISA plan a joint NATO SPS application in 2027.

06Outcomes · Counted, not declared

FIVE COUNTABLE OUTCOMES.

Three layers of sustainability. Every result has a pre/post measurement, a date and a public artefact.

  1. Twelve to fifteen certified analysts publish their own analytical reports.

    Pre/post test ≥ +30%.

  2. Thirty to thirty-six CSO and media staff walk out with individual implementation plans.

    Competency gain ≥ +25%.

  3. Three workshop cycles delivered autonomously by AIISA -without CSIN in the room.

    Participant rating ≥ 4/5.

  4. An open-source Toolkit in Polish, English and Armenian -CC BY-NC 4.0.

    Two hundred-plus downloads, twenty-plus recipient organisations.

  5. An analytical report for Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, parliament and the EU Delegation.

    At least two citations in media or institutional reports.

Institutional

Capacity carried into NATO SPS Guardian AI.

AIISA carries the capacity built in AI Shield directly into the NATO SPS 'Guardian AI' project (EUR 80,000).

Individual

Daily AI-tooling for the certified analysts.

Certified analysts use AI tools in their daily research and editorial work -beyond the project's funding cycle.

Systemic

Resilience for the cycles ahead.

Armenia will go through more electoral cycles, a constitutional debate and a possible accession referendum. Each generates a wave of disinformation. AI Shield lays the resilience foundation without which European integration cannot be defended.

07What comes next

THIS IS THE FIRST. NOT THE LAST.

  1. 01

    NATO SPS 2027.

    Joint CSIN–AIISA application to the NATO Science for Peace and Security programme. AI Shield builds the institutional trust foundation that makes the bigger application credible.

  2. 02

    Regional replication.

    The English-language Toolkit enables adaptation in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine -with no translation cost. Russian information playbooks travel; defensive playbooks should travel faster.

  3. 03

    'AI Shield Georgia'.

    Project experience provides the basis for a subsequent RITA or Erasmus+ KA220 application focused on Georgia, applying the AIISA-style cascade model in a second post-Soviet democracy.

"The success or failure of Armenia's European integration depends in part on whether its civil society can defend itself against information operations designed to reverse that course."

AI Shield · AIISA · 2026-2027